Models
Models
Notes on building, testing, and understanding models used in financial applications.
Model risk
Model risk, from scratch
How models fail, why validation matters, and why no model is ever neutral.
Assumptions
Assumptions are the model
Every model contains beliefs about data, behavior, time, and uncertainty.
Validation
What validation actually checks
Validation is not proving a model is true. It is understanding where it works, where it fails, and why.
Testing
Overfitting and false confidence
How a model can look accurate on past data and fail in real use.
Governance
Model limits
A useful model should explain what it cannot know.